The Gulf region currently faces serious challenges to political reform. Carnegie scholars offer analysis on the Gulf Cooperation Council’s complex relations with an Iran with nuclear ambitions, Islamist movements in the area, rising instability in Yemen, and the growing economic impact of GCC countries (and Saudi Arabia in particular) on the greater Middle East.
The best hope for a two state solution is a new, comprehensive approach that involves the most important regional players, including Saudi Arabia and Syria.
A national coalition government, such as the one in Switzerland, could allow the Arab world to include a wide cross-section of parties and groups in a power-sharing government that would increase the sense of security and participation for all.
The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq profoundly changed the politics of the Middle East, leading to an increase in Sunni-Shiite tension across the region and providing an opportunity for both Iran and Turkey to spread their influence and take a stronger role in regional relations.
Although full democracy in the Arab world remains a distant goal, broader participation in the political process, with a marked effect on human development, can be achieved.
A formal framework for communication and cooperation in the eastern Middle East could reduce the risks of conflict and encourage stability and economic development in this tense but critical location.
The violent jihad advocated by al-Qaeda is not widely accepted by Yemenis at this point, and there is a small window of opportunity to take steps to undermine al-Qaeda’s influence.
While growing Islamic extremism in Yemen is alarming, in the longer term it is the country’s domestic challenges that threaten to bring Yemen to its knees, with potentially destabilizing consequences for the region.